top of page

Navigating the Markets: June 26th-30th

Happy Friday, friends! It's been quite an intense trading week, hasn't it? I hope it's been a good one for you and that you're ready for a relaxing weekend ahead. We all need time to de-stress from the screens!


It gets harder and harder to do that though, doesn't it? Just last night we learned about Wagner's apparent coup attempt against Putin. I imagine that may catalyze some de-risking of equities on Sunday night, along with a bid for oil, gold, platinum, wheat, and long bonds.


The Macro


We're seeing signs of the labor market softening as jobless claims have risen 30% year-to-date and quits figures are lower, but it isn't yet a sign that it's breaking. For that to happen it's more likely that the services industry needs to slow meaningfully, and with the flash PMI services data we received today showing expansion, we're not there quite yet.

Source: Edward Jones

There is some good news on the inflation front. We're seeing ISM prices paid move lower, and that leaves less pressure to pass on to customers in the form of cost push inflation. However, we're also seeing ISM manufacturing lowering prices to customers in order to stimulate what have been slowing sales. A sign that business conditions are deteriorating as we're likely set for the 10th month in a row of contracting manufacturing activity.

Source: Edward Jones

Leading economic indicators continue to fall, now for 14 consecutive months. It's becoming more likely that we head into a recessionary period, but our work at MacroVisor suggests that won't happen until the services industry begins to see contraction and unemployment claims exceeds 300,000 per week.

The Fed's revised dot plot showed a terminal rate of 5.6% expected this year. The Fed also revised up their inflation and economic expectations.

Source: Edward Jones

This shift in the dot plot would imply a range of 5.5% to 5.75%, which is still higher than what the market is currently pricing in and 50 bps higher than the current policy range.

Fed Funds Futures also remain skeptical of the timing of cuts, seeing them starting as early as January of next year, despite the Fed's messaging to the contrary.


The Week that Was


We saw the Russell down over 3%, the Dow down 1.7%, and the NASDAQ lost 1.4%. But the tech-heavy index is still up 28.9% YTD.


Oil was hit harder than the Russell, the former of which is beginning to see some lopsided positioning. We'll look at that shortly.


Underneath the surface of the S&P 500 we saw weakness in much of tech, with the noteworthy exceptions of META and AMZN. TSLA and AAPL traded relatively flat on the week.

Source: FinViz

Healthcare had a reasonable bid and there was some strength in a few defensive names and financials. Other than that it was a a pretty difficult week. The most challenging since the SVB failure during March.

Want to read more?

Subscribe to traderade.com to keep reading this exclusive post.

Sign Up and
Stay Updated

Person Analyzing Graphs On Screen

Disclaimer

Information contained in this website should not be construed as investment or trading advice. Opinions expressed herein by Traderade are not investment recommendations and are not meant to be relied upon in investment decisions. The Traderade.com website is not acting in an investment adviser capacity and neither are any authors on this website. Information presented is not an investment research report. Opinions expressed herein may address only select aspects of the companies mentioned and cannot be a substitute for comprehensive investment analysis.
 

Any analysis presented herein is illustrative in nature, limited in scope, based on an incomplete set of information, and has limitations to its accuracy. We recommend that potential and existing investors conduct thorough investment research of their own and consult a qualified investment adviser. The information upon which this material is based was obtained from sources believed to be reliable but has not been independently verified. Therefore we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Any opinions or estimates constitute our best judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.
 

The authors may buy or sell shares without any further notice and may have a position in any shares of any of the companies or asset classes mentioned. By using this website you agree with our full Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Navigation

Copyright 2025 Traderade. All rights reserved.

  • Twitter
  • Youtube
bottom of page